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Maharashtra Crisis Why Uddhav Thackeray Is Desperate To Keep Shiv Sena From BJP Eknath Shinde


Rebel Minister Shiv Sena, Eknath Shinde, who has put the Maharashtra coalition government in trouble, said a “national party” described its rebellion as historic. Referring to the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) at the centre, he said a “national party” had also assured every possible assistance. In such a situation, she faces a big crisis Shiv Sena led by Udav Thackeray. The Shinde faction is also claimed to have over 37 Shiv Sena MLAs. That is, two-thirds of the party’s MLAs belong to the Shinde faction, so they can share their demands in the party as well. Shinde will have to ensure the support of 37 MLAs (two-thirds of the 55 MLAs) to avoid disqualification.

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Why does Shiv Sena want distance from the BJP?

Udhav Thackeray and Shiv Sena, who were BJP allies, distanced themselves from him after the 2019 House of Representatives elections. The BJP has outperformed Shiv Sena in the last two assembly elections – both in terms of number of seats and vote share. From 1990 to 2004, Shiv Sena was ahead of the BJP in the Assembly elections. However, the trend reversed in 2009, when the BJP won two more seats than Shiv Sena for the first time. This small difference in the number of seats increased to a large margin in 2014. In the 2014 assembly elections, the BJP won 122 seats, nearly double the 63 seats held by Shiv Sena.

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BJP outperforms regional Shiv Sena

According to the Times of India report, the seat gap between the two parties narrowed slightly in 2019. However, with 105 seats, the BJP was far ahead of the regional party which managed to win only 55 seats. Not only on seats, Shiv Sena also lagged behind the BJP in terms of voting share. The BJP’s vote share in the assembly elections increased from 10.71% in 1990 to 25.75% in 2019. During the same period, Shiv Sena’s voting share increased marginally from 15.94% to 16.41%.

Not only seats, BJP managed to get more votes than Shiv Sena

Shiv Sena’s best performance was in 2004. But even then the regional party couldn’t get past 20% of the vote and hit its maximum in 2004 when it got 19.97% of the vote. In the 2014 assembly elections, the BJP recorded an increase of about 13.5% over the 2009 assembly election and surpassed the Shiv Sena. However, a regional party can only increase its vote share by about 3% from the last council elections. In the Lok Sabha elections too, the BJP has surpassed Shiv Sena in terms of seat share. In the last two elections, the BJP won 23 seats compared to Shiv Sena’s 18.

Shiv Sena’s counterattack on the Shinde faction, sent a petition to disqualify 12 MLAs

Both parties share the same ideology

As these figures show, the BJP has slowly but surely increased its political influence in the country. This is certainly a concern for Shiv Sena, who is struggling to stem the decline in his political fortunes. At the core of Hindutva ideology, Shiv Sena shares the same ideology with the BJP. This is why it is facing challenges from the BJP more than its current allies – the National Congress Party and the Congress.

A chance for the BJP to take revenge?

There was a time when Shiv Sena led by Balasaheb Thackeray was considered the most powerful and tumultuous Hindutva force in India. However, it has now changed. The BJP led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi is today a very powerful political force fighting for the Hindutva agenda. Udhav also feels that his party’s ties with the BJP are no longer close. The Saffron Party has made huge gains over the years and has become a threat not only to the NCP and Congress but also to Shiv Sena. This realization may have forced Udhav Thackeray to form an alliance with the NCP and the Congress in 2019 to keep the BJP out of power.

Sanjay Raut told the rebel MLAs: “Merge with the BJP, and we will salute Shiv Sena…”

However, the BJP now has a real chance to avenge Shiv Sena’s ‘betrayal’ for 2019. The BJP has a chance not only to form its own government but also to ensure that Uddhav loses control of his party. The great Shiv Sena leader, Eknath Shinde, revolted along with most of the MLAs. Reports indicate that it has the support of about 40 of 55 Shiv Sena MLAs. The rebels want Udhav to leave the “unnatural” alliance with the NCP and Congress and return to the BJP.

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