Voting in the by-election in Rampur and Uzumgarh, two seats in the Lok Sabha held by the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh, is scheduled for Thursday. Rampur’s seat was vacated due to Azam Khan’s resignation while Azamgarh MP Akhilesh Yadav resigned. Both are now members of the North American Legislative Assembly. There is head-to-head combat between SP and BJP in Rampur because BSP does not fight. In Azamgarh there is triangle BSP compared to BJP, SP.
It’s a matter of prestige for SP to win Brambur and Uzghar as he owns both seats but Akhilesh Yadav hasn’t even gone to campaign once for both seats. While many BJP leaders including CM Yogi Adityanath were seen campaigning ferociously in both seats. Let us understand what is the mathematics of voting in Azamgarh and Rampur Lok Sabha seats.
Strong challenge to SP in Azamgarh, SP’s lead in assembly elections dropped from Lok Sabha
In two seats, if the Socialist Party looks weak on one seat, it will be the Azamgarh Lok Sabha seat vacated due to Akhilesh Yadav’s resignation. Here, the cousin of SP Chairman Akhilesh Yadav, Dharmendra Yadav, faces BJP leader and BJP star Dinesh Lal Yadav Nirhwa and Shah Alam alias Gudu Jalali of BSP. Between the two Yadav, the Mayawati BSP filled the suspense of the Battle of Azamgarh by giving a minority candidate.
Akhilesh Yadav won the 2019 Lok Sabha elections by a margin of 2.59 lakh votes. Until then Nirhua fought and lost from the BJP. In the 2022 General Assembly elections, the Socialist Party’s lead was reduced to 1.06 lakh by taking the votes of the five assembly seats Gopalpur, Sagri, Mubarakpur, Azumgarh and Mehnagar in this Lok Sabha seat. Within three years, about half of the electorate had been reduced to the SP, even though the SP had won ten out of ten seats in the district. Akhilesh Yadav’s absence If Azamgarh doesn’t like it, Dharmendra Yadav may be in trouble.
Head-to-head combat between SP and BJP in Rampur, Akhilesh left the fight to Azam Khan
Rampur’s Lok Sabha seat vacant due to Azam Khan’s resignation is a direct battle between the BJP and the SP, with BJP’s Asif Raza standing on one side and BJP’s Ganshyam Singh Lodhi on the other side. Lodhi was earlier a confidant of Azam Khan and was also the leader of the SP party. Akhilesh Yadav left this fight to Azam Khan, which simply means you have your seat, and take him out.
The vote count for Rampur is that in the 2019 elections, Azam Khan won this seat by a margin of 1.09 lakh votes. In the 2022 elections, the SP’s overall lead increased to 1.44 lakh in the five assembly seats under this seat, Swar, Chamraua, Bilaspur, Rampur and Milak. Among the five assembly seats in the district, 3 were occupied by the Socialist Party and two by the BJP.
The BSP is not contesting in the Lok Sabha by-election for this seat. Besides SP, Azam’s reputation is also in jeopardy in Rampur, which Azam kept mentioning in his speech.